Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
